France’s political landscape is shifting! The 2024 legislative elections resulted in President Emmanuel Macron’s party losing its majority, signaling the rise of new political forces. The emergence of the center-left and left-wing New Popular Front is questioning the future of Macronism, while the ascent of new leaders like Gabriel Attal is noteworthy. Don’t miss our comprehensive article that deeply analyzes this new era in French politics, its balances, challenges, and potential future scenarios. Read our piece to understand this historic change and its possible implications
Analysis
By Ben Jennana Marwene
France’s 2024 Legislative Shake-Up and Its Ripple on Macronism
The outcomes of the second round of the French legislative elections transcended the podium in Europe on Sunday, the 7th of July 2024, after a remarkable, yet unfulfilled landslide for the French conservatives driven by a 66.63% voter turnout. Following the far-right’s historic victory in the European elections (31%), President Emmanuel Macron dissolved, in a televised speech following the announcement of the European election results, the functions of the National Assembly under Article 12 of the Constitution for the first time since 1789 and called for early legislative elections on the 30th of the same month. The ballot resulted in an unprecedented political landscape in which the New Popular Front (NPF) headed the election polls with 182 seats, followed by the presidential camp (List ensemble) with 168 seats, while the National Rally (far-right) came third with 143 seats, but no bloc obtained an absolute majority of 289 deputies in the National Assembly. At the margins, the (right-wing) Republican caucus holds 66 seats and could play a pivotal role in re-stabilizing affairs in Matignon. The central question to raise now concerning French democracy, is whether it is put at risk from Macron’s uncertain policies?
Who wins the race for Credibility?
Launched in late June 2024 to counterbalance the 2024 Marine Lepen’s right-wing alliance and Emmanuel Macron’s centrist “Ensemble” alliance, the New Popular Front (NPF) is a diverse coalition of center-left and left-wing parties, including the Socialists, the Greens, the Communists, and the radical left group France Unbowed (LFI). Against the backdrops of the current policies, the NFP presented a programme that included a promise to scrap the pension and immigration reforms passed by Elizabrth Borne’s government to set up a rescue agency for undocumented migrants and to facilitate visa applications for those coming from North Africa (a vital and strategic veine for the French working force labor). The Alliance also forwarded promises to hold on caps on basic goods to combat the cost of living crisis, boost housing subsidies as well as raiseming the monthly minimum wage to €1,600. While the program is ambitious and addresses significant issues, Macron’s centrist camp is portraying both the RN and NPF as irresponsible and the dimension of their realism hinges on political collaboration and public support.
This is to be maintained that for the first time since his arrival at the Elysée Palace in 2017, the President Emmanuel Macron no longer acquired a majority within Palais-Bourbon. The country has been, thus, sliding into a state of political uncertainty after this unexpected and confusing result which shook the foundation of the macronist policies that kept a steady pace of traditional French pro-migration politics and that were accustomed to political stability thanks to the constitution of 1958. A number of political observers see, on the other hand, that the dissolution of the national assembly has resulted in the dissolution of Macronism itself as it revealed the end line for a long-run representative democracy in favour of a tendency to hyper-presidentialism. In a statement to the French audience published in local newspapers, Macron called on “all political forces in the institutions of the Republic, the rule of law and parliamentary rule (…) to engage in an honest and sincere dialogue to build a solid majority that is necessarily pluralistic.” It is important to note that the country has previously experienced three instances where the government was led by a president and a prime minister from opposing political factions known as “cohabitaition.” With Macron’s party, La “République En Marche!” losing its absolute majority and facing significant opposition from other major blocs, such as the left-wing coalition (Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale) and the far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National). Many additional challenges await the president to prove his mettle amidst these unprecedented circumstances such as the internal challenges of the European Union and the due organisation of the Paris 2024 Olympics, to just name a few.
“Attalism”, the new “Macronism”?
In response to that, Marine Le Pen, the far-right wing leader, ominously accused President Emmanuel Macron of directly causing the country’s political stalemate and being an obstructing agent in the way of the natural overflow of the political calculations. The journalist and specialist in political communication, Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet declared on radio France Inter that Gabriel Attal “has replaced the President in his role as a rallying force, in his appeal to the country’s political conscience”. The polls of a national French polling institute reveal that 41% of French people confessed in June 2024 that they were satisfied with Gabriel Attal’s input as head of government with the primary mission being to ensure equilibrium within the country. By comparison, by the closing of May 2024 only 26% were satisfied with Emmanuel Macron as President. Gabriel Attal “has a great deal of credibility as the successor to the central block for 2027″, explains Philippe Moreau-Chevrolet. Trying to conceptualise a viable government that is able to assert the upcoming directives of the country for the next 5 years, Macronists were found in an impasse following the unapproved resignation of Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (the prime figure running the election campaign for the President Macron’s Ensemble alliance). In this regard, Olivier Faure, the head of the Socialist Party declared that “We should be able to present a candidate” for prime minister. Many observers perceive Gabriel Attal as this generation’s Chirac.
