Arda AKGÜL – Analysis
Former President of the United States, and candidate Donald Trump made a statement on NATO countries’ spendings on NATO, which statement that Trump opponents and Europe followed with concern. Trump’s statement was on countries which do not spend enough for their defence.
In 2014, NATO leaders agreed to a guideline recommending that member countries dedicate at least 2 percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for defense spending. This commitment brings a realization that common defense relies on each nation’s fund on their own militaries. Therefore, the whole organization will be capable of defending themselves and other member countries in order to own a better military situation.
The 2% figure has occured as a comparison, although not all nations currently reach this target. Some European nations have increased their defense spending significantly in recent years, working towards fulfilling their 2 percent guideline.
As there are conflicts in all around the World, it is expected that countries will spend more on defence.
Countries spending on NATO
This graph shows countries’ spending on their defence. Poland leads the spending list with the highest defense spending as a share of GDP, reaching 3.9 percent in 2023.
The United States follows closely at 3.49 percent. As it is seen, Russia-Ukraine war has influenced NATO countries’ spending patterns, especially for countries near the conflict zone. These countries countries that are near to Russia and Belarus have higher spending if they are compared to 2014. Additionally, European countries try to improve their defence in order to be protected from Russia. Major General Veiko-Vello Palm, head of Estonian defence army, stated that a lot of NATO militaries are not ready to fight Russia in an interview in December. It is possible to see that Estonia, the country has more spending if compared with 2014, on the top list of NATO defence spending. Europe started to comprehend what Ukranian president Zelenskyy said, “If anyone thinks this is only about Ukraine, they’re fundamentally mistaken.”
Therefore, it will not be a surprise to see more defence expenditures all around the NATO countries. And, especially, if Donald Trump will win the November elections of the United States, he could be more arrogant and threating for countries which do not follow the 2 percent rule of NATO. Donald Trump has stated “We have to finish the process we began under my administration of fundamentally re-evaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission.” on his website. If Trump wins, it also might mean that United States will be carrying a passive role in NATO, but a withdrawing from NATO is not a option for the United States.
Poll for Trump vs. Biden
Biliteral agreements
NATO countries can adjust biliteral agreements on cooperation, especially military ones. It can be varied from joint military drills to technology shares. Therefore, these countries might try to make a backup plan in order to avoid any problems that can occur due to NATO’s stability.
Investment in new technologies
Even though the United States may lead NATO’s military technology, it is possible to see other countries’ investment in new technologies to defend themselves. For instance, Türkiye has made huge improvements in its own defence, but what it is meant by investment in new technologies is a common improvement in technology, whether countries will work individually or not.
Expanding armies
Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius said, “Everyone is talking about a shortage of personnel in the Bundeswehr – and no one knows this better than I do.” last year. Also, the government has a goal to expand the army to 203.000 soldiers from 183.000 by 2031. Therefore, it is comprehended that governments try to expand their armies.
Increased share in defense spending in GDP
Whether countries want or not to follow the guideline of spending on defence at least 2 percent, this goal will be automatically aimed as countries try to make their armies better in terms of quality and quantity.
Harsher warnings against Russia
NATO countries would state Russian threat more verbally from now on, at least, these countries would warn their own population. General Carsten Breuer of Germany stated that Germany must prepare military to be ready for a potential war with Russia in the next five years. Another top military member, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer said that we face the most dangerous world when compared with decades.
Therefore, it will be possible to see bilateral agreements, investments in new technology, expanding armies, declarations of non-commitment to NATO, a more aggressive stance, economic domination over Russia, an increase in defense spending in GDP, perhaps more than the NATO rule of 2 percent; openly anti-Russian ministers, prime ministers, heads of state and diplomats, harsher warnings against Russia from opposition parties, increased financial and military aid to Ukraine, and vigilance in non-NATO countries.
Source
Agenda47: Preventing World War III: Donald J. Trump for president 2024. Donald J. Trump. (2024, March 16). Retrieved from https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-preventing-world-war-iii
Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2023). (2023, July 7). Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2023/7/pdf/230707-def-exp-2023-en.pdf.
Swan, J., Savage, C., & Haberman, M. (2023, December 9). Fears of a NATO withdrawal rise as Trump seeks a return to power. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/us/politics/trump-2025-nato.html
The Economist Newspaper. (2024, February 20). Trump v Biden: Who’s ahead in the polls? The Economist. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/
Ostiller, N. (2024, February 10). Top German general: ‘We must be ready for war (with Russia) in 5 years’. Retrieved from https://news.yahoo.com/top-german-general-must-ready-110328699.html
RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service. (2024, January 22). West must be prepared for war with Russia, NATO official warns ahead of major military drills. RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. Retrieved from https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-west-war-russia-nato-admiral-bauer-drills/32783552.html
Posaner, J. (2024, January 17). NATO official warns West: Be ready for ‘anything.’ POLITICO. Retrieved from https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-needs-warfighting-transformation-says-military-chief/
Former President of the United States, and candidate Donald Trump made a statement on NATO countries’ spendings on NATO, which statement that Trump opponents and Europe followed with concern. Trump’s statement was on countries which do not spend enough for their defence.
In 2014, NATO leaders agreed to a guideline recommending that member countries dedicate at least 2 percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for defense spending. This commitment brings a realization that common defense relies on each nation’s fund on their own militaries. Therefore, the whole organization will be capable of defending themselves and other member countries in order to own a better military situation.
The 2% figure has occured as a comparison, although not all nations currently reach this target. Some European nations have increased their defense spending significantly in recent years, working towards fulfilling their 2 percent guideline.
As there are conflicts in all around the World, it is expected that countries will spend more on defence.
Countries spending on NATO
This graph shows countries’ spending on their defence. Poland leads the spending list with the highest defense spending as a share of GDP, reaching 3.9 percent in 2023.
The United States follows closely at 3.49 percent. As it is seen, Russia-Ukraine war has influenced NATO countries’ spending patterns, especially for countries near the conflict zone. These countries countries that are near to Russia and Belarus have higher spending if they are compared to 2014. Additionally, European countries try to improve their defence in order to be protected from Russia. Major General Veiko-Vello Palm, head of Estonian defence army, stated that a lot of NATO militaries are not ready to fight Russia in an interview in December. It is possible to see that Estonia, the country has more spending if compared with 2014, on the top list of NATO defence spending. Europe started to comprehend what Ukranian president Zelenskyy said, “If anyone thinks this is only about Ukraine, they’re fundamentally mistaken.”
Therefore, it will not be a surprise to see more defence expenditures all around the NATO countries. And, especially, if Donald Trump will win the November elections of the United States, he could be more arrogant and threating for countries which do not follow the 2 percent rule of NATO. Donald Trump has stated “We have to finish the process we began under my administration of fundamentally re-evaluating NATO’s purpose and NATO’s mission.” on his website. If Trump wins, it also might mean that United States will be carrying a passive role in NATO, but a withdrawing from NATO is not a option for the United States.
Poll for Trump vs. Biden
Biliteral agreements
NATO countries can adjust biliteral agreements on cooperation, especially military ones. It can be varied from joint military drills to technology shares. Therefore, these countries might try to make a backup plan in order to avoid any problems that can occur due to NATO’s stability.
Investment in new technologies
Even though the United States may lead NATO’s military technology, it is possible to see other countries’ investment in new technologies to defend themselves. For instance, Türkiye has made huge improvements in its own defence, but what it is meant by investment in new technologies is a common improvement in technology, whether countries will work individually or not.
Expanding armies
Germany’s defence minister Boris Pistorius said, “Everyone is talking about a shortage of personnel in the Bundeswehr – and no one knows this better than I do.” last year. Also, the government has a goal to expand the army to 203.000 soldiers from 183.000 by 2031. Therefore, it is comprehended that governments try to expand their armies.
Increased share in defense spending in GDP
Whether countries want or not to follow the guideline of spending on defence at least 2 percent, this goal will be automatically aimed as countries try to make their armies better in terms of quality and quantity.
Harsher warnings against Russia
NATO countries would state Russian threat more verbally from now on, at least, these countries would warn their own population. General Carsten Breuer of Germany stated that Germany must prepare military to be ready for a potential war with Russia in the next five years. Another top military member, Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer said that we face the most dangerous world when compared with decades.
Therefore, it will be possible to see bilateral agreements, investments in new technology, expanding armies, declarations of non-commitment to NATO, a more aggressive stance, economic domination over Russia, an increase in defense spending in GDP, perhaps more than the NATO rule of 2 percent; openly anti-Russian ministers, prime ministers, heads of state and diplomats, harsher warnings against Russia from opposition parties, increased financial and military aid to Ukraine, and vigilance in non-NATO countries.
Source
Agenda47: Preventing World War III: Donald J. Trump for president 2024. Donald J. Trump. (2024, March 16). Retrieved from https://www.donaldjtrump.com/agenda47/agenda47-preventing-world-war-iii
Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014-2023). (2023, July 7). Retrieved from https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2023/7/pdf/230707-def-exp-2023-en.pdf.
Swan, J., Savage, C., & Haberman, M. (2023, December 9). Fears of a NATO withdrawal rise as Trump seeks a return to power. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/us/politics/trump-2025-nato.html
The Economist Newspaper. (2024, February 20). Trump v Biden: Who’s ahead in the polls? The Economist. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/
Ostiller, N. (2024, February 10). Top German general: ‘We must be ready for war (with Russia) in 5 years’. Retrieved from https://news.yahoo.com/top-german-general-must-ready-110328699.html
RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service. (2024, January 22). West must be prepared for war with Russia, NATO official warns ahead of major military drills. RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. Retrieved from https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-west-war-russia-nato-admiral-bauer-drills/32783552.html
Posaner, J. (2024, January 17). NATO official warns West: Be ready for ‘anything.’ POLITICO. Retrieved from https://www.politico.eu/article/nato-needs-warfighting-transformation-says-military-chief/
